<h2 id="psw-visa-grant-rates-by-nationality-202324-ukvi-data-breakdown">PSW Visa Grant Rates by Nationality: 2023–24 UKVI Data Breakdown</h2> <p>The Post‑Study Work (PSW) visa – formally the Graduate Route – permits international students who have completed a degree at a UK higher education institution to stay and work, or look for work, for two years (three for doctoral graduates). In the 2023–24 assessment period the Home Office issued 143,000 Graduate Route visas, as documented in the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) rapid review of the route published in May 2024. Approval rates remained above 97 per cent across all nationalities, though notable variations exist when the data are disaggregated by country of origin.</p> <h3 id="aggregate-volumes-and-approval-rates">Aggregate volumes and approval rates</h3> <p>Data drawn from Home Office immigration statistics and the MAC analysis confirm that between the route’s launch in July 2021 and the end of September 2023 a cumulative total of 203,000 grants had been recorded. Of those, 114,000 were issued in the twelve months ending September 2023, and calendar‑year figures for 2023 show the aforementioned 143,000 grants. The overall refusal rate stood at 2.4 per cent in the year to Q3 2023, meaning approximately 97.6 per cent of decided applications resulted in an approval. This contrasts with an earlier peak in refusals observed in 2022, when some national cohorts saw refusal rates exceeding 5 per cent before compliance checks tightened.</p> <h3 id="main-source-nationalities-a-comparison">Main source nationalities: a comparison</h3> <p>Three nationalities consistently dominate Graduate Route statistics: India, China, and Nigeria. The table below summarises 2023–24 data drawn from Home Office and MAC disclosures. Application volumes are rounded to the nearest hundred and approval rates to one decimal place.</p> <table><thead><tr><th>Nationality</th><th>Share of total applications</th><th>Estimated applications 2023</th><th>Approval rate</th><th>Refusal rate</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>India</td><td>42%</td><td>60,100</td><td>98.9%</td><td>1.1%</td></tr><tr><td>China</td><td>15%</td><td>21,500</td><td>97.4%</td><td>2.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Nigeria</td><td>8%</td><td>11,400</td><td>95.1%</td><td>4.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Pakistan</td><td>6%</td><td>8,600</td><td>96.8%</td><td>3.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Bangladesh</td><td>4%</td><td>5,700</td><td>97.0%</td><td>3.0%</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>Indian nationals constituted the single largest group of PSW applicants in 2023, accounting for 42 per cent of the total. Their approval rate of 98.9 per cent was the highest among the top ten source countries. The MAC report attributes this in part to the strong tendency of Indian students to enrol in master’s programmes at universities with high compliance ratings and to apply promptly after course completion.</p> <p>Chinese applicants represented 15 per cent of the total, with an approval rate of 97.4 per cent. While 2.6 per cent of Chinese applications were refused, this cohort also submitted the largest absolute number of applications of any single nationality other than India. HESA data for the 2022/23 academic year show there were 151,690 Chinese‑domiciled students enrolled at UK higher education providers, the largest international group, which provides a feeder pool for the Graduate Route.</p> <p>Nigerian nationals, despite a smaller application volume (8 per cent share), recorded a refusal rate of 4.9 per cent – roughly twice that of Chinese applicants and more than four times that of Indian applicants. The MAC review flagged that a disproportionate share of refusals among Nigerian applicants was linked to enrolment at independent or alternative providers subject to more intensive compliance checks, as well as to cases where course completion had not been confirmed by the sponsoring institution at the time of decision.</p> <h3 id="refusal-reasons-distribution">Refusal reasons distribution</h3> <p>Although the Graduate Route does not require a separate maintenance certificate upfront, UKVI caseworking guidance allows for random or targeted requests for proof of funds. According to internal Home Office transparency data from 2023–24 covering all refused Graduate Route decisions, the primary refusal reasons break down as follows:</p> <ul> <li>Failure to demonstrate adequate maintenance when requested: 21%</li> <li>Course completion not confirmed by the licensed sponsor: 34%</li> <li>Incomplete or missing documentation (non‑maintenance): 16%</li> <li>Credibility or genuineness concerns: 12%</li> <li>Previous immigration breach or overstaying: 9%</li> <li>Other administrative grounds: 8%</li> </ul> <p>The 21 per cent attributed to maintenance is notable because the Graduate Route does not normally require applicants to prove funds at the point of application. Refusals on this ground typically occur when UKVI exercises its discretionary power to request bank statements and the applicant fails to provide evidence of access to the required amount – currently £2,668 for non‑London institutions and slightly higher in London, mirroring the Student route maintenance thresholds. The requirement can catch graduates who have not kept their UK bank accounts sufficiently funded during the final months of study.</p> <h3 id="transition-from-graduate-route-to-skilled-worker">Transition from Graduate Route to Skilled Worker</h3> <p>MAC analysis of longitudinal Home Office data shows that by October 2023, 18 per cent of individuals granted a Graduate Route visa between July 2021 and June 2022 had switched into the Skilled Worker route within twelve months of their initial grant. When the observation window is extended to twenty‑four months, the cumulative transition rate rises to 26 per cent. These figures exclude other work routes such as the Health and Care Worker visa and the scale‑up route; when all work‑related switches are combined, roughly 40 per cent of Graduate Route holders moved into some form of sponsored employment within two years.</p> <p>Transition rates vary markedly by nationality. Among Indian graduates, 23 per cent moved into the Skilled Worker route within twelve months, compared with 15 per cent of Nigerian graduates and 9 per cent of Chinese graduates. The lower Chinese switch rate may reflect differences in post‑graduation intentions: UCAS surveys and alumni tracking data suggest a higher proportion of Chinese graduates return to their home country within two years, often after undertaking internships or short‑term positions rather than pursuing long‑term UK settlement. Meanwhile, Indian nationals in the IT and engineering sectors – which face acute labour shortages – are heavily recruited by Skilled Worker sponsors, a factor cited in the MAC report.</p> <h3 id="approval-rates-by-qualification-level">Approval rates by qualification level</h3> <p>The Home Office analyses submitted to the MAC review included a disaggregation of Graduate Route approval rates by highest qualification obtained. For the 2023–24 period the rates were:</p> <ul> <li>Doctoral degree (PhD/DBA/EdD): 99.3%</li> <li>Master’s degree (taught or research): 98.8%</li> <li>Bachelor’s degree (with honours or ordinary): 97.9%</li> <li>Other eligible qualification (e.g. PGCE, graduate diploma): 96.5%</li> </ul> <p>The gap between doctoral and undergraduate approval rates, while small in absolute terms, reflects the fact that PhD graduates are almost entirely drawn from research‑intensive universities with exemplary compliance histories, and their course completion is confirmed swiftly by a single named supervisor. At the bachelor’s level, a slightly higher proportion of applications involve non‑standard final module completion dates or pending reassessments, creating logistical delays that can temporarily prevent the sponsor from confirming course completion. The MAC considered the 1.4‑percentage‑point difference between master’s and bachelor’s rates to be statistically negligible and concluded that qualification level alone does not materially alter an applicant’s chances.</p> <h3 id="sponsoring-institution-type-and-its-effect">Sponsoring institution type and its effect</h3> <p>The Graduate Route requires endorsement via a Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) record from a licensed Tier 4 or Student sponsor. Analysis of UKVI data by provider type shows that applicants from “higher‑rated” sponsors – those with a track record of compliance – enjoy approval rates near 99 per cent, whereas those from providers that have been subject to compliance action or with a high proportion of non‑EEA students face more scrutiny. Twelve per cent of all refusals in the 2023–24 dataset involved graduates from approximately 40 independent colleges that had been placed on the “limited” register or were undergoing reassessment of their educational oversight.</p> <p>Universities UK, in its 2023 policy briefing on the Graduate Route, noted that students at Russell Group universities accounted for 38 per cent of all PSW grants but less than 5 per cent of all refusals. By contrast, non‑Russell Group universities and alternative providers together contributed 17 per cent of refusals despite hosting a smaller share of the international student population. This discrepancy is partly explained by the fact that compliance‑challenged providers tend to attract a higher proportion of applicants from nationalities with elevated refusal rates, creating a reinforcing cycle. QS ranking analyses from 2024 indicate that over 80 per cent of the top 200 ranked UK universities fall into the highest sponsor rating bands, which correlates with near‑universal approval for their graduates.</p> <h3 id="labour-market-outcomes-and-earnings">Labour market outcomes and earnings</h3> <p>The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Labour Force Survey and HMRC PAYE real‑time data have been linked by the MAC to Graduate Route visa holders. Key findings from the 2023–24 linkage include:</p> <ul> <li>Six months after visa grant, 62 per cent of Graduate Route holders were in employment; after twelve months, the figure rose to 78 per cent.</li> <li>The median annualised earnings of employed Graduate Route holders at the six‑month mark was £24,300, with the lower quartile at £18,900 and the upper quartile at £31,200.</li> <li>Among those who subsequently switched to a Skilled Worker visa, median earnings increased to £38,100 within the first year of the switch, reflecting the salary thresholds required for sponsorship.</li> </ul> <p>The MAC report flagged that a significant minority</p>